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General photography questions and answers: Discuss Predict the future of Digital Photography...With the speed of change in technology I wondered what others thought would be the big changes in Digital Photgrapghy ...
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Old 06-04-2006, 12:12   #1 (permalink)
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Predict the future of Digital Photography

With the speed of change in technology I wondered what others thought would be the big changes in Digital Photgrapghy in the next 10-20 years. I'll kick it off :-

RAW to include APERTURE
Assuming storage & chip technology continue to advance at such a pace, I would imagine it will soon be possible to store the distance of each pixel/s in the RAW data, allowing you to change the aperture in PS. In an ideal world you would obviously want the lens to be fixed at pretty high f/stop to allow all of image to be in focus as starting point.

Gap between Video Camera & DSLRs to diminish
As storage becomes cheaper & larger in size, at some point you will be able to shoot so many frames per sec on DSLR that you have the equivalent of a Video camera. You'd never miss that split second shot then

Pixel count to increase to such a point, there is no need for zoom lenses.
If you had a sensor that could capture way more pixels than required. you could crop shots dramatically to get equivalent zoom shots. Would obviously require very sharp optics in first place.


OK, I'm sure holes can be picked in the above, but I'm sure the concepts will appear in some form or another. Over to others for their views.
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Old 06-04-2006, 12:41   #2 (permalink)
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Two words: plenoptic camera.

Watch this video:
http://graphics.stanford.edu/papers/...a/lfcamera.wmv

And have a look at their webpage:
http://graphics.stanford.edu/papers/lfcamera/
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Old 06-04-2006, 12:49   #3 (permalink)
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WOW...never seen or heard of that before....I'll cancel the patent
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Old 27-11-2009, 04:23   #4 (permalink)
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Re: Predict the future of Digital Photography

Seems I was on the ball with 2nd prediction ..... now come on the rest
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Old 27-11-2009, 07:14   #5 (permalink)
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Question Re: Predict the future of Digital Photography

Moore's Law....

(rough translation)
The number of transistors (or any component) that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit will double approximately every two years....

He wrote this in 1965, and has yet to be proved wrong in his concept of how computing will develop...
Quote:
The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer.
At least 10 years?... its nearly 2010, and his concepts were so accurate, they are still in use 40 years later... many R&D firms use Moore's law as a guideline to plan for the future.

So what do I think we may see....
I think our imagination holds us back a bit.

I know they are working on new sensors.... and new view screens.... I expect eventually we will lose the SLR bit, in favour of a view-screen that shows us what the sensor sees, so less moving parts inside...
Not just the back view screen, but the SLR type eyepiece view-screen.....
This is happening even now..

The sensors themselves will provide more and more pixels, so, yes, digital zoom will become better, but I expect the optical lenses to become better, therefore better range on the optical part for a smaller lens...
I dont think we will see the end of the zoom lens, just better lenses, smaller and lighter...
More fragile?... moot point?....

Image stabilization is a huge factor in this... it is expected that that will improve in leaps and bounds, so perhaps the camera wont be needing the tripod as much.
With the new smaller per pixel sensors that will be working many many times faster than current ones, how soon will ISO become so fast it has a "k" choice?... 1600, 16,000 or 16k, 32k, 64k.... and just how far can we go beyond?...
How soon before its so fast, Flash guns are a thing of the past?...

The boundaries are only the speeds that data can be transferred in the camera by the usual copper-core links on the wires and circuit board...
And Optical Fibre works an infinite number of times faster than copper core...

So far, only one processor in each camera?...
Hmmm........ really?..... I have a multi-core computer, which five years ago was cost prohibitive as a home computer, so how soon will we see multi-core computer chips in the camera?...

(Multi-core, multi-layer chips that work so fast they are capable of cracking the 128bit encryption of "safe" websites are on the desks of may R&D places... how soon before they get into public domain?...)

With the advent of video-glasses, you may also see a "remote" viewscreen, where the sensors image may be blue-toothed to your glasses....
(Neat... I have seen something like this already....)

How long before "Hologram" becomes the norm?...
Not that far away, I bet....
Will we be taking totally paper free images to be displayed on holo-projectors in full and glorious 3D?...
Its in its infancy at the moment, but I bet it aint that far away............

Screens...

You can now get screens so light and thin they can be hung on a wall like picture frames.

How long before that puts printers out of business?... how long before we decide to use them to show a gallery?....

What we have today, to what we have tomorrow... who knows?..

What we have today is so far removed from what we had in 35mil, its only the fact that we still view the 35mil as "camera" that keeps it that shape...
Think "car", you see bonnet, doors, boot, and 4 wheels... anything that is not that shape, to some, is not a car.

Can we, or should we, resist change?....
I know I am...
See past posts where I have said "If I wanted Video, I would use my Video camera".....

Can we seal up this thread, when it full, and save it as a time capsule, to look back in 5 years and see what we predicted, and see what we get...
Who knows?... someone may do a "sinclair" and totally reinvent the home computer and give rise to a whole new avenue of home electronics that may even bring something into picture taking we have no idea about today.

When my Father passed away, DSLR's were just toys for rich kids.........
That was 10 years ago.

So how much of this is daydreams?... is the Dragon just a nut-job..?..?..
Come back in 5 years or so and see?....
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Old 27-11-2009, 07:25   #6 (permalink)
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Re: Predict the future of Digital Photography

Quote:
Two words: plenoptic camera.

Watch this video:
http://graphics.stanford.edu/papers/...a/lfcamera.wmv

I want that......
I REALLY want that..........................

As per the bit in my own post....
Quote:
Who knows?... someone may do a "sinclair" and totally reinvent the home computer and give rise to a whole new avenue of home electronics that may even bring something into picture taking we have no idea about today.
Point proven to myself even?........ I had no idea that plenoptic camera existed when I wrote my post....
How long before they go further?...

There is more I dont know that I dont know than I know I dont know, its the things we dont know that we dont know that will change the world faster than the things we know we dont know, and admitting we dont know that we dont know brigs us closer to knowing the thinks we know we dont know....

And if you understood that all the first read through, you know more than I do, hence the edit....

There is more I dont know that I dont know than I know I dont know, its the things we dont know that we dont know that will change the world faster than the things we know we dont know, and admitting we dont know that we dont know brigs us closer to knowing the thinks we know we dont know....thinking in colour helps?...

Last edited by Silver Dragon; 27-11-2009 at 07:32. Reason: typo
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Old 27-11-2009, 07:54   #7 (permalink)
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Re: Predict the future of Digital Photography

* Still awaiting infinite DOF to be applied to a high street camera (it exists as a project - as per the Stanford but using a current camera)

* I guess the death of the optical viewfinder is not too far away - just need to get those LCD screens even smaller

* Think we're about as far as optics can go so minor tweaks only - unless someone discovers a radically different lightweight substrate

* I'm wondering how much further the physical sensors can go (well, Bayer ones anyway) - again physics is proving an upper limit, with software the area where the greatest advances can be made. But I guess 'sampling' could be a way of getting around the barriers (after all up to 2/3rds of the colours are interpolated calculations already)

* The new Li-ion battery technology when applied to the new polymers will mean batteries can be shaped to fit and charged in a couple of seconds
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Old 27-11-2009, 12:12   #8 (permalink)
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Re: Predict the future of Digital Photography

i think technology as a whole is advancing way too fast....... if you think it was only 100 yrs ago or so that we got general use of electricity and now we are talking all the above.......... scary thought when it took us how many hundreds of thousands of years to evolve into what we are......... no wonder the world is in such a mess.
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Old 27-11-2009, 12:31   #9 (permalink)
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Re: Predict the future of Digital Photography

As a confirmed gadget freak I welcome most of the new technology. I suggested a while ago that the days of the clunky SLR were numbered, but at the time an optical viewfinder was (and probably still is) superior to an electronic one. The gap is closing though, and we're already seeing a new generation of interchangeable-lens cameras that are not SLRs.

The rather sad thing, I suppose, is that everyone with a cameraphone now thinks they're a photographer, which has devalued photography as an art form and perhaps made it more difficult for professionals to distance themselves from amateur snappers. A similar thing happened to hi-fi in the late 1960s when the Japanese arrived with affordable equipment that challenged the exclusivity of the Quad/Leak/Tannoy/Lowther brigade. Was that a bad thing? No, not at all, and I don't believe that the popularisation of photography and video is bad either.
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Old 27-11-2009, 14:07   #10 (permalink)
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Re: Predict the future of Digital Photography

I certainly like the idea of digitally re-focussing. I am sure that HDR will be bult into camera in the future by either multiple exposure and in-camera processing (OK with limited or no movement) or the basic single exposure dynamic range to increase. I am sure that the manufacturers will also provide lots of things we do not want as well.

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Old 29-11-2009, 00:08   #11 (permalink)
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Re: Predict the future of Digital Photography

Dslr's will die a death. The mirror is old technology,there are some very exciting new formats being delevoped and its about time too!
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